A test or decision has four outcomes: true positive (correctly say "yes" when the state is yes), true negative (correctly say "no" when the state is no), false positive (say "yes"...
The core idea
A test or decision has four outcomes: true positive (correctly say "yes" when the state is yes), true negative (correctly say "no" when the state is no), false positive (say "yes"...
Connected
Mental Model
Mental Model5 Whys
why five times to find the systemic root cause.
Mental Model
Mental ModelAll Models Are Wrong
model simplifies reality; the question is whether it is useful.
Mental Model
Mental ModelAmara's Law
technology short-term, underestimate it long-term.
Mental Model
Mental ModelEisenhower Decision Matrix
tasks by urgency and importance to focus on what truly matters.
Mental Model
Mental ModelFirst Principles Thinking
a problem to its fundamental truths and reason up from there — the antidote to r
Mental Model
Mental ModelGoodhart's Law
a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.