rule (or rule of succession) estimates the probability of an event that has occurred k times in n trials as (k + 1) / (n + 2). It's a simple Bayesian prior: start from...
The core idea
rule (or rule of succession) estimates the probability of an event that has occurred k times in n trials as (k + 1) / (n + 2). It's a simple Bayesian prior: start from...
Connected
Mental Model
Mental ModelAbstraction
complexity behind simpler interfaces to reason at higher levels.
Mental Model
Mental ModelExplore-exploit Tradeoff
gathering new information against leveraging what you already know.
Mental Model
Mental ModelMetcalfe's Law
value grows proportionally to the square of connected users.
Mental Model
Mental ModelMoore's Law
counts double every two years, driving exponential computing gains.
Mental Model
Mental ModelMythical Man Month
people to a late project makes it later.
Mental Model
Mental ModelTechnical Debt
decisions create compounding costs that must be repaid.