of Truly Large Numbers states that with a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen. Given millions of events, million-to-one coincidences occur daily....
The core idea
of Truly Large Numbers states that with a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen. Given millions of events, million-to-one coincidences occur daily....
Connected
Mental Model
Mental Model5 Whys
why five times to find the systemic root cause.
Mental Model
Mental ModelAll Models Are Wrong
model simplifies reality; the question is whether it is useful.
Mental Model
Mental ModelAmara's Law
technology short-term, underestimate it long-term.
Mental Model
Mental ModelEisenhower Decision Matrix
tasks by urgency and importance to focus on what truly matters.
Mental Model
Mental ModelFirst Principles Thinking
a problem to its fundamental truths and reason up from there — the antidote to r
Mental Model
Mental ModelGoodhart's Law
a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.