multiple cognitive biases or forces act in the same direction simultaneously, the combined effect isn't additive — it's multiplicative. Recognising these confluences is essential for predicting extreme outcomes.
The core idea
multiple cognitive biases or forces act in the same direction simultaneously, the combined effect isn't additive — it's multiplicative. Recognising these confluences is essential for predicting extreme outcomes.
Connected
Antifragility
systems gain from disorder — growing stronger from shocks.
Emergence
wholes arise from simple parts interacting — the whole exceeds the sum.
Feedback Loops
feed back as inputs, creating either amplifying or stabilizing dynamics.
Gall's Law
complex systems evolve from working simple systems.
Leverage Donella Meadows
a MeadowsSmall shifts at the right point produce outsized systemic changes.
Margin of Safety Redundancy and slack
and slack let systems absorb unexpected shocks.