ław Ulam / John von NeumannMonte Carlo simulation estimates outcomes by running many random trials instead of solving equations. You define a model (inputs, relationships, and distributions), draw random...
The core idea
ław Ulam / John von NeumannMonte Carlo simulation estimates outcomes by running many random trials instead of solving equations. You define a model (inputs, relationships, and distributions), draw random...
Connected
Bayes Theorem
your beliefs proportionally to how surprising the new evidence is — the foundati
Black Swan Theory
, unpredictable events with extreme impact shape history.
Compounding
growth from consistent small gains over long time horizons.
Correlation vs Causation
together does not mean one causes the other.
Ergodicity
works across many simultaneously may not work for one across time.
Exponential Growth
accelerates proportionally to current size, slow then explosive.