analysis replaces a single forecast with a small set of distinct futures — typically base, upside, and downside — and asks what happens in each. The goal is not to assign...
The core idea
analysis replaces a single forecast with a small set of distinct futures — typically base, upside, and downside — and asks what happens in each. The goal is not to assign...
Connected
Mental Model
Mental ModelBayes Theorem
your beliefs proportionally to how surprising the new evidence is — the foundati
Mental Model
Mental ModelBlack Swan Theory
, unpredictable events with extreme impact shape history.
Mental Model
Mental ModelCompounding
growth from consistent small gains over long time horizons.
Mental Model
Mental ModelCorrelation vs Causation
together does not mean one causes the other.
Mental Model
Mental ModelErgodicity
works across many simultaneously may not work for one across time.
Mental Model
Mental ModelExponential Growth
accelerates proportionally to current size, slow then explosive.