paradox is the reversal of a trend or comparison when data are aggregated versus when they are split into groups. A treatment can look better in every subgroup but worse...
The core idea
paradox is the reversal of a trend or comparison when data are aggregated versus when they are split into groups. A treatment can look better in every subgroup but worse...
Connected
Mental Model
Mental ModelBayes Theorem
your beliefs proportionally to how surprising the new evidence is — the foundati
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Mental ModelBlack Swan Theory
, unpredictable events with extreme impact shape history.
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Mental ModelCompounding
growth from consistent small gains over long time horizons.
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Mental ModelCorrelation vs Causation
together does not mean one causes the other.
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Mental ModelErgodicity
works across many simultaneously may not work for one across time.
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Mental ModelExponential Growth
accelerates proportionally to current size, slow then explosive.