A new breakdown every week — read the newsletter →
ΘNavigator
PeopleBusinessesToolsNewsletter
StrategiesMental ModelsDecision ToolsBusiness ModelsFrameworksMoats
LearnBook SummariesReading ListsGuidesQuote Collections
Artificial Intelligence Learning PathsWhat should I study? AboutContact
Interactive tool

Decision Tree (Expected Value)

For each option, list outcomes as probability and value; the tool computes expected value and ranks your options.

How to read it

Expected value turns a fuzzy gamble into a number: the sum of each outcome's value weighted by its probability. The highest EV is a strong default — but never bet the farm on a positive EV whose downside you can't survive. Pair with a pre-mortem to pressure-test the probabilities.