is the systematic tendency for predictions to skew in a consistent direction — typically toward overconfidence, optimism, or the continuation of current trends. It...
The core idea
is the systematic tendency for predictions to skew in a consistent direction — typically toward overconfidence, optimism, or the continuation of current trends. It...
Connected
Availability Heuristic
judge the likelihood of events based on how easily examples come to mind, not on
Anchoring
information encountered disproportionately shapes all subsequent judgements.
Bandwagon Effect
adopt trends because others have — popularity self-reinforces.
Bystander Effect
éMore witnesses means less action — responsibility diffuses across groups.
Cognitive Dissonance
between beliefs and actions drive rationalisation over change.
Confirmation Bias
seek evidence that confirms what we already believe and filter out what contradi