turkey illusion — derived from Nassim Taleb's parable — describes the danger of inferring safety from a long history of stability. A turkey is fed every day for 1,000 days,...
The core idea
turkey illusion — derived from Nassim Taleb's parable — describes the danger of inferring safety from a long history of stability. A turkey is fed every day for 1,000 days,...
Connected
Availability Heuristic
judge the likelihood of events based on how easily examples come to mind, not on
Anchoring
information encountered disproportionately shapes all subsequent judgements.
Bandwagon Effect
adopt trends because others have — popularity self-reinforces.
Bystander Effect
éMore witnesses means less action — responsibility diffuses across groups.
Cognitive Dissonance
between beliefs and actions drive rationalisation over change.
Confirmation Bias
seek evidence that confirms what we already believe and filter out what contradi