Overview
Your brain runs on shortcuts that are usually helpful and occasionally disastrous. Knowing the most common thinking traps — and the simple counter-moves — is one of the highest-return investments you can make in your own judgement.
This guide covers the traps that catch nearly everyone.
The steps
Beware seeking only agreement
Confirmation bias makes you notice what confirms your view. Counter it by actively seeking disconfirming evidence.
Don't be fooled by vividness
The availability heuristic makes dramatic events feel common. Check the base rates instead.
Ignore what's already spent
The sunk cost fallacy keeps you in bad situations. Decide only on future costs and benefits.
Watch the fear of loss
Loss aversion makes you cling to losing positions. Evaluate outcomes in absolute terms.
Check your leaps
Use the ladder of inference to catch the moment you jumped from a fact to a conclusion.
Follow the incentives
When behaviour puzzles you, look at incentives before assuming stupidity or malice.
Key takeaways
- Actively seek evidence you're wrong, not just right.
- Trust base rates over vivid stories.
- Sunk costs and loss aversion keep you in bad positions — look forward.
- When puzzled by behaviour, follow the incentives.
Frequently asked questions
Can I train myself out of biases?
Not entirely — they're built in. But knowing them and applying deliberate counter-moves (seek disconfirmation, check base rates) meaningfully reduces the damage.
Which bias is most costly?
It varies, but confirmation bias is a strong candidate — it quietly corrupts the evidence feeding every other judgement you make.