The timeless thinking tools that sharpen judgement across every domain — each explained with how to apply it, a worked example, and pitfalls. This library grows every week.
We judge likelihood by how easily examples come to mind, not by actual frequency.
Start from how often something happens in general before judging the specific case.
Know the boundary of what you truly understand — and stay inside it.
Specialise in what you give up the least to do, and trade for the rest.
Small gains, repeated and building on themselves, become extraordinary over time.
We seek and favour evidence that confirms what we already believe.
Beyond a point, each additional unit of effort yields less and less benefit.
Never attribute to malice what is adequately explained by carelessness.
Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome — people respond to rewards.
Losses hurt about twice as much as equivalent gains feel good.
Leave room for error, because your estimate will sometimes be wrong.
Among competing explanations, prefer the simplest that fits the facts.
The true cost of anything is what you give up to get it.
Roughly 80% of results come from 20% of causes — find and focus on the vital few.
Extreme outcomes tend to be followed by more average ones.
Don't throw good money after bad — past investment shouldn't dictate future choices.
Price is set where what sellers will supply meets what buyers will demand.
Every model is a simplification of reality — never mistake it for the real thing.