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Judgement

On Decisions & Risk

How to think clearly when the stakes and the uncertainty are high.

Overview

Good decisions come from temperament as much as intellect. These lines distil how the best decide under uncertainty.

The quotes

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.— Warren Buffett

The whole of contrarian investing: the best opportunities appear precisely when the crowd's emotion is most extreme in the other direction.

Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.— Warren Buffett

Never confuse the two. Profit comes from the gap between a thing's price and its worth — which requires judging value independently of the market.

Rule No.1: never lose money.— Warren Buffett

A reminder that avoiding ruin matters more than chasing gains — because you can't compound from zero. Protect the downside first.

Don't be afraid to give up the good to go for the great.— John D. Rockefeller

The good is the enemy of the great. Real progress often means abandoning something adequate to pursue something exceptional.

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